Beginner Financial Investing.

[WillPlay4Food]

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7188909.stm

Here are the big sub-prime losses made public so far, starting with the latest bombshell from Citigroup:

MAIN SUB-PRIME LOSSES SO FAR
Citigroup: $18bn
UBS: $13.5bn
Morgan Stanley $9.4bn
Merrill Lynch: $8bn
HSBC: $3.4bn
Bear Stearns: $3.2bn
Deutsche Bank: $3.2bn
Bank of America: $3bn
Barclays: $2.6bn
Royal Bank of Scotland: $2.6bn
Freddie Mac: $2bn
Credit Suisse: $1bn
Wachovia: $1.1bn
IKB: $2.6bn
Source: Company reports

If I'm correct, that's about 73.6billion lost to the subprime mortgage fallout.

 

[Bassic83]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/new...gers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008013103

Dang- ya think? Mr. Rogers is painting a bleak picture of the US economy. A rosy one for China. Heck, he even sold his NYC pad and moved over there! I've been thinking of leaving as well, as I really don't want to see the country I used to love turned into more of a moral and economic cesspool than it already is, but I don't want to move to the Pacific Rim. But I gotta say, there is a lot happening over there, and WalMart is taking over the US, trying desperately to become the single retail vendor for the US. Dollar is in decline, the Fed keeps hacking away at the rates, while simultaneously "injecting fresh capital" into the market...so fresh, in fact, that the ink isn't even dry. Now the Prez has a plan to "trust Americans with their own money", handing back a paltry $800-$1600 as a "tax rebate". Meh. Wanna impress me? Make the tax cuts permanent, and take the $800-$1600 off my taxes forever. Abolish the IRS and get the government to learn to live on a budget- a deficit-free budget. Quit spending ridiculous sums of money when you don't have it.

Now they're worried about getting people to SPEND THEIR WAY OUT OF A RECESSION? What? When did I fall through the looking glass?

We don't stand a chance. We no longer have the capability to manufacture jack. Everything is being imported, from countries that really aren't our friends. Why should they have any quality control when it comes to us? Sell it to the US, they buy anything! On the brighter side, perhaps the dollar's weakness will finally erase some of the financial incentives to set up shop in China. Their people are starting to ask for more money, and they are not the bargain they once were. The problems of non-existent QC are coming around to bite them in the butt. Difficulties in China will raise prices, further eroding the dollar.

 

[joelb79]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/new...gers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008013103

Dang- ya think? Mr. Rogers is painting a bleak picture of the US economy. A rosy one for China. Heck, he even sold his NYC pad and moved over there! I've been thinking of leaving as well, as I really don't want to see the country I used to love turned into more of a moral and economic cesspool than it already is, but I don't want to move to the Pacific Rim. But I gotta say, there is a lot happening over there, and WalMart is taking over the US, trying desperately to become the single retail vendor for the US. Dollar is in decline, the Fed keeps hacking away at the rates, while simultaneously "injecting fresh capital" into the market...so fresh, in fact, that the ink isn't even dry. Now the Prez has a plan to "trust Americans with their own money", handing back a paltry $800-$1600 as a "tax rebate". Meh. Wanna impress me? Make the tax cuts permanent, and take the $800-$1600 off my taxes forever. Abolish the IRS and get the government to learn to live on a budget- a deficit-free budget. Quit spending ridiculous sums of money when you don't have it.

Now they're worried about getting people to SPEND THEIR WAY OUT OF A RECESSION? What? When did I fall through the looking glass?

We don't stand a chance. We no longer have the capability to manufacture jack. Everything is being imported, from countries that really aren't our friends. Why should they have any quality control when it comes to us? Sell it to the US, they buy anything! On the brighter side, perhaps the dollar's weakness will finally erase some of the financial incentives to set up shop in China. Their people are starting to ask for more money, and they are not the bargain they once were. The problems of non-existent QC are coming around to bite them in the butt. Difficulties in China will raise prices, further eroding the dollar.

I find it fascinating that the only person running for office this election season is the unpopular one who is screaming this left and right every time anybody talks about the economy. And no, its not McCain, Romney, Obama or Clinton.

If we really want these changes to happen to our country get your buttox out there and vote.

 

[Bassic83]

I find it fascinating that the only person running for office this election season is the unpopular one who is screaming this left and right every time anybody talks about the economy. And no, its not McCain, Romney, Obama or Clinton.

If we really want these changes to happen to our country get your buttox out there and vote.

The one who is labeled as a loony-bin freak show? The one who actually consults, of all things, the Constitution? We don't need the Constitution, it's just an old, obsolete piece of paper, according to a certain head-of-state. Yet, this document contains warnings of just these types of events, and the consequences of allowing them to happen. Sadly, history only goes back to the last election in voters' minds. Economically, history only goes back two, maybe three weeks in those same craniums. But I'm not here to argue politics, and on that point, I'll get to my next point...

Would dissolution of the dollar and having a common currency be any better for economic conditions in this hemisphere? I think not, yet that seems to be the direction we are headed. The powers that be are interested in only one thing- enriching themselves. They don't represent the needs of the many, only the needs of the few. And we keep putting those few in positions of power where they can do us the most damage. People need to wake up and realize that this may not be just a rough patch. We don't have the commonality that the EU does, with borders and trade. Because of the geography of this hemisphere, we are not in direct contact with many of our neighbors, as it is in the EU. The situations are NOT the same...

 

[joelb79]

Im thinking of writing a letter to the White House with a copy of Ron Paul's books/literature on economy and sending back the $2200 they propose to give me as part of a "stimulus" and say..

"Dear White House,

After careful consideration, i've decided to give this money back to you. You need it more than I do. Enclosed are documents stating why.."

On the other hand, I could also buy a Roscoe. hmm..

 

[Bassic83]

Another $60 billion put in circulation. What are we up to now? Anybody know for sure? I think it is 180 billion...but I'm not positive.

Did anyone else notice the timing of the M3 index "being retired" and the starting up of the printing presses? Now we have no way of knowing how much they are printing a day, or how much is in circulation. And they're worried about stagflation? Puhleeze...they're creating it every day!

 

[joelb79]

Woah. Those filthy crooks!! Note- they are not publishing it, instead it is now an internal Federal reserve number. Great, good job America. I'm gonna go get in line at the line to be an immigrant in China now.

 

[Bassic83]

Woah. Those filthy crooks!! Note- they are not publishing it, instead it is now an internal Federal reserve number. Great, good job America. I'm gonna go get in line at the line to be an immigrant in China now.

Which mine are you gonna be working in? I think I'm going to be at Qing Dao Uranium mine...the hours there are better than at the coal mine- only 18 hours a day, instead of 20!

We need to get serious about our money here in the States. It may be too late, but when the money supply is nearly doubling in the course of a few months, that is not a bad thing- it's a TERRIBLE thing. We're being gang-raped by the few chosen elite. My suggestion for the "tax rebate", if you get one? Not Wal-Mart, that's for sure! How about buying Euros with it? That's likely what I will do with mine. Or possibly Indian rupees...

I don't plan on paying for merchandise with it, regardless. No plasma TV, no new computer, not even a new bass!
I may save it (in Euros) to pay my property taxes next year.

The average person who gets one of these- and this is what the economysticals are betting heavily on- will immediately trot down to the bank, cash it, and trot immediately into Wally World, spending most, if not all of it, on cheap Chinese goods, thus enriching the Chinese economy. That's what makes this "economic stimulus plan" such a folly.

The next level up the economic ladder, the recipients will take the check to the bank, and then trot home to pay bills that they haven't had the extra room in their budget to pay. Better, but still bad.

The upper end people who get the check will throw it in their savings account, to pad it a little. Once again, not stimulating the economy in a direct fashion.

We simply MUST start finding alternative sources of goods, and start cutting off the constant flow of money into the belly of the dragon. I now go out of my way (and even go over-budget, occasionally) to find goods NOT made in China. I buy USA if I possibly can, followed by EU. I never buy anything made in Antarctica.

 

[dangnewt]

Guys,

First a thank you to SMASH. Your posts about looming inflation caught my eye and I moved my portfolio toward cash and inflation-resistant investments in early January. A little late, but better than never. FWIW - I think this year is going to be tough and if we are not in a recession already we are awfully close.

That said - this thread about Best Buy adding a pretty substantial music department caught my eye and got me to look a little more carefully at the stock.
http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=411415

I first got into stockpicking by reading Peter Lynch's books - One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. The premise was that there are certain things that normal everyday joes can figure out quicker than the Wall Street crowd whether it be directly related to our jobs or a hobby or our own spending patterns. Like everyone, I have had some wins and losses doing this. I bought Microsoft in 1994 after the place I was working finally gave up a really crappy suite of products and bought Office. I didn't do so well with Bertucci's pizza - the pizza is fantastic but the expansion plan was too aggressive and the stores too expensive to build.

To me, even though the US discretionary consumer is quite literally tapped out, Best Buy may still be OK as it gains sales from lesser competitors who are not big and lean enough to survive the tough times. Best Buy's move into retailing musical instruments seemed like a great move to me - indicative that as long as people buy stuff, a smart retailer like Best Buy will do OK. Both Morningstar and S&P had strong buys on it, so I bought some.

As luck would have it, I put in a limit order for a little below yesterday's close and got the stock at my price - then it proceeds to lose another 3 or 4%.

It still looks good to me - what say you all?

 

[Bassic83]

Guys,

First a thank you to SMASH. Your posts about looming inflation caught my eye and I moved my portfolio toward cash and inflation-resistant investments in early January. A little late, but better than never. FWIW - I think this year is going to be tough and if we are not in a recession already we are awfully close.

That said - this thread about Best Buy adding a pretty substantial music department caught my eye and got me to look a little more carefully at the stock.
http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=411415

I first got into stockpicking by reading Peter Lynch's books - One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. The premise was that there are certain things that normal everyday joes can figure out quicker than the Wall Street crowd whether it be directly related to our jobs or a hobby or our own spending patterns. Like everyone, I have had some wins and losses doing this. I bought Microsoft in 1994 after the place I was working finally gave up a really crappy suite of products and bought Office. I didn't do so well with Bertucci's pizza - the pizza is fantastic but the expansion plan was too aggressive and the stores too expensive to build.

To me, even though the US discretionary consumer is quite literally tapped out, Best Buy may still be OK as it gains sales from lesser competitors who are not big and lean enough to survive the tough times. Best Buy's move into retailing musical instruments seemed like a great move to me - indicative that as long as people buy stuff, a smart retailer like Best Buy will do OK. Both Morningstar and S&P had strong buys on it, so I bought some.

As luck would have it, I put in a limit order for a little below yesterday's close and got the stock at my price - then it proceeds to lose another 3 or 4%.

It still looks good to me - what say you all?

+1 to Smash...

That said, I really am on the fence regarding Best Buy. I hate the place, most of the people I know have at least one or two horror stories...so I'm kind of ehh about them. That said, they are doing better than (short)Circuit City, at least around here. Nobody shops there. I'm not so sure about the financials on either company, I haven't looked. I'm getting away from stocks right now. There's still much pain to be spread around, and I'm afraid the retail stocks will take a beating. Most stocks are, right now. I am waiting for a little while longer before I jump in again. That's just me, though. I'll be watching, but I am thinking July may be some sort of turnaround. If not, it'll likely be after November's US election returns.

 

[CrazyArcher]

From the outside it's fairly easy to spot that while the US are the hugest consumer (per capita) in the world, they consume without paying. That is, the import/export ratio is large, and still growing. The Treasury keeps issuing more and more bonds, because there's no in hand currency to pay directly, and this bubble is going to blow sooner or later. Go figure, maybe we'll have Great Depression Revisited. It's not gonna be nice to anyone...

 

[joelb79]

Especially me. I can't even keep up with how this is killing my income. Considering everything is rising in cost. Speaking of which the driving factor for the price of oil right now is US investors pouring money into it. This drives the cost up for the rest of the world. Why would we do that? Simple, it makes China pay more. We mind as well take as many down with us as we can considering they are well inline to exceed our demand of oil, if they have not already.

Also, India is now pushing cars on its people. Talk about a nightmare. When they all want a piece of the American dream, its going to crash on us. Us, the American who don't own a damn thing and pay for everything on credit.

This problem is not going away anytime soon and I wish I could make double what I make right now just so I could do more and save more for what is coming ahead.

 

[WillPlay4Food]

If you can't make more money, then spend less while you still can.

 

[Bassic83]

If you can't make more money, then spend less while you still can.

Sage advice, my friend, sage advice! Too many of us "ugly 'Mercans" are more concerned with "keeping up with the Joneses" than with reducing debt and living within our means". As for me, I have paid off all my credit cards, except one that I have a small balance on (had to replace my dying PC, bought a MacBook instead...what a trip!), and even that wil be paid off within the 21-day grace period. Now on to the wifey's cards, then the truck, then all of the house. With any luck, I will be totally debt-free, with a paid-off house, somewhere around 2012 in the spring! I have a 15-year mortgage, just refinanced. So four, maybe five years from now if I can reduce spending a little more, I should be making my last house payment!

With all that is going on in the world, I have a question- it may have impacted you already- what's up with gas prices already? As far as I can see, we're heading for $4.50-$5.00/gal by July! That seems to be the consensus from everyone I know connected with the petrofarm complex. Glad I drive a Metro! I've semi-pickled the Ranger, I'll drive it when I have to, but some people I work with are already looking for jobs closer to home. If gas gets up to $5, they won't be able to afford to go to go to work anymore. I am currently looking for ways to boost my fuel economy, and I already over-inflate about 3-5 lbs, run the lightest synthetic oil I can find (5W20), refrain from A/C whenever possible, and put 3oz. pure acetone in every tank just before squeezing the dollar meter. And the oil companies keep raking it in- $10 million an hour profits, and they're squealing like a stuck pig- "Not enough prooofffiittts!" Wish that $10M/hr was MY hourly profit, even for just ONE hour! Lets see how well they do in the winter of next year...

So if everyone here can take steps to reduce their trip mileage, eat at home as much as possible, put off major purchases, stop the impulse buying at the store, and do a "debt snowball", paying off the lowest $ debt first, then rolling what you paid into the next higher $ amount debt, then repeat until it's done, you'll see good things happening to your bottom line. If you can stand driving a lunchbox to work that gets really good mileage, so much the better. If you can sell the SUV, or have another car that can take it's place, even better! I realize that not everyone can do this, or is willing to try, but maybe they should look at other creative ways to save. I'm saving $300/mo in fuel alone by driving my Metro...not everyone thinks it's cool, but it's starting to be looked at with much envy as I pull up to the pump next to a Gigantor Maximus SUV who just put the fuel nozzle in the tank, I hop out, go stand in line, pay for my fuel, and then fill up before they get to a quarter tank...I almost always get "Hey, what kind of mileage do you get in that thing?"

"Oh, about 40..."

"Wish I had one of those...how big is the tank?"

"Ten gallons...which means that if it's dry, and gas is $5/gallon, I'll only have to pay $50 to fill up...and I'll go 400 miles before I have to fill it again!"

I see more and more people having "that anyeuristic moment" when they find out that they don't make these cars any more...so they can't get one new. If they could, I'm sure it would be a new status symbol!

 

[joelb79]

I'm with you on the Metro. Right now I drive a cavalier and I pay $40 a tank. It gets me around 300 miles combined city/highway driving that I do.

As far as gas prices, Oil companies were eating profits for the last quarter to help stimulate the economy a little. The price of oil per barrel has been driven up recently by US Investors pouring money into oil to drive the price up. Demand is down in the US however, but they don't want China to have cheaper gas and reap the benefits of our weakened economy when it comes to the cost of expanding theirs.

The thing to remember about oil is that its not going to be around in another 25-30 years. Peak oil is real, and if we have not hit the peak (arguably we have) its around the corner. I say we have. If you look at price trends for the last 10 years minus inflation of the US Dollar, we definitely have hit a point where the price is becoming exaggerated. And any oil company will tell you its becoming more and more expensive to pump it out as the oil fields are becoming dry.

Even recently, Mexico has changed from an oil exporter to an oil importer. Their oil fields in the Gulf ground to a halt after the pressure of the sea became too great to pump any more out. They cannot meet the demand of their own country now without importing.

Bad times ahead. When you look at everything that is made with the energy or bi-products of oil and how much of our food is made or delivered with the stuff, we are in for a trend of increasing prices for everything.

It would not surprise me if down the line some analyst determines that peak oil hit in 2003, and it was the increase of prices in consumer goods, commodities, food and housing costs that caused or attributed to the mortgage problems, and the debt driven society of America was just not ready for this kind of disaster; causing a recession of unrecoverable dimensions.



On a lighter note, what happened to Smash!?! He hasn't been online since his last post to this forum. Is he alive?

 

[Bassic83]

No idea about Smash...

But when you think about the products made from oil- plastics, tires, adhesives, styrofoam, etc... We're gonna be rolling back to the Bronze Age soon! Horses and donkeys will replace cars and trucks, and THEN how will we get our goods from China? Sailing ships will make a comeback, and you know what that means- PIRATES will make a comeback! So if you're looking long-term for a good investment, look into prosthetics and eyepatch manufacturers!

Not to be all doom and gloom, but with the dollar being devalued constantly, and wages either shrinking or stagnant, (unless you're an executive at a large multi-national corporation, of course ) it'll be every man for himself sooner than we think. At that point, we will have more people than we can support, and something will have to be done about that.

The thing that has me worried is e-currency. A single form of payment that has no backing of anything, issued by a central "bank". Think about it. It's coming, and coming fast. You work, you get paid. But, instead of going to the bank and getting some cash out to go buy groceries and whatever with, it all gets tied to your account, leaving you completely at the mercy of a computer somewhere that has the power to deny your purchases. Think of the movie "The Net". Scary proposition, to have no other form of payment for goods than e-currency, after they get the currency out of circulation. You'd be paid in, and pay with, virtual 1's and 0's. No ATMs. Just your card, or your RFID implant. Or your iris scan, or whatever other biometric gets popular. Someone has a beef with you? IRS? They take your credit, leaving you with no way to feed yourself or your family. Good way to "control population growth" or to put down "uprisings". Conspiracy theory? Perhaps, but maybe not!

"Recession of unrecoverable dimensions"...perhaps that is by design?

 

[joelb79]

Smash sent me a fascinating e-mail today.

"Death shorts" on ABK and MBI are bringing us a joi-de-vivre today, friends !

ABK is down 40% *today* after their earnings [colossal losses] report this morning. MBI is down 30% *today* in sympathy. Puts of course have skyrocketed.

Witness the comical headline - Invalid Link Removed

Indeed no one could have expected the loss. There's no pattern or anything to tip people off - Invalid Link Removed

Very interesting how quickly these theirs are willing to take off with peoples money. Take for instance the comments from people on market watch.

The financial guaranty insurers stand behind over $3 trillion of credit and have a combined stated net worth and market caps of less than $7 billion.
The top 2 (ABK and MBI) have 60% of the market and are still rated "AAA/Aaa" despite hemorrhaging losses and almost infinite leverage.
A great deal of capital in the financial system depends upon continued AAA ratings of these insurers.

It is a form of leverage, but the losses in this industry go well beyond what most people normally conceive as potential leveraged losses.

If you take a loan, invest it, and lose it, your losses are at least limited to that loan. Not the case with these bond insurers. They underwrote the margins instead of the full instrument, so their losses are unlimited. This is because underwriting insurance is a form of conditional shorting--promising to buy later under certain circumstances. Underwriting only the margin of an expected loss, while backing the whole, is leveraged conditional shorting.

In both cases your potential loss is unlimited. In the latter case, leveraged conditional shorting, your losses are not only potentially infinite, they are potentially infinite times many. Hundreds, or even thousands of times your capital outlay is on the hook, which in the bond insurers case, was $2.2 trillion.

So AMBAC has become close to the next Enron in the wake of this "subprime meltdown." how can they expect to go on an keep a AAA credit rating? If this is AAA, I want something higher assigned to my personal credit rating. At least i'm not robbing the Whole country of USA to pay my debt! I work my ass off for it thank you.

At least today the dollar climbed a little against the Euro and oil is down to (gasp) 117? Wait till the market closes. With this kind of sell off, it would be no surprise that commodities and hard forms of wealth climb. Just look at the stats. http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/abk

 

[SMASH]

Hola amigos ! I'm alive and very well and hope you've all been well too and weathering the economic challenges if not profiting from the situation.

I've rec'd some queries about this thread, so a quick update while I'm back on TB.

Fist, the "sample portfolio". I'd sell out ER.to and CVT.to for gains of 85% and 65% respectively. I'm not so much thining they've run their course as I realized that there's a key concept I haven't yet illustrated - taking your profits out, or at least taking out your original investment.

I do have other good sub-$1 purchase ideas, but I'm not in the mood to track this in general and as I said the concept of withdrawing funds is important so presume this money would be taken out of the markets. Money is *not* safe in the stock markets at any time, least of all now. Period.

So we'd started originally with $1000 CAD (the original poster being Canadian, coupled with my assertions a few years ago at the start of this thread that the US dollar would tank badly which it has proving that putting money in markets outside the US was the prudent approach) and with these trades we now show :

ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

BAY.v                  100               1.61            .41             (74)
HPS-A.to               100              11.90          12.11               2
RSG.v                  400                .17            .11             (35)
WGP.v                 1000                .385           .46              20

Cash $812      

[b]Net Gain to date per the trades in this thread is 157%
 in roughly 27 months.[/b]

If measured in real terms for people in the States, 
due to the falling US dollar, it'd be approx +220%    

* I may no longer update this going forward.

Not now that almost all of the original cash has been recouped, with the gains have been posted consistently in defiance of highly volatile markets, and with very few trades all done outside of market hours I don't think I've much else to make an example of. Of those that remain in the list, I'd only currently be happy to purchase or hold HPS-a and WGP.

Tallying up, there have been 22 trades (less than one per month), only 5 of them losers. That's a 77% win rate, and if anyone can point me to someone who can post more reliable gains more often, at any price for their service, I'd greatly appreciate it because it'd save me a lot of time and effort. I say so both sincerely and as an effort to underscore how much can be learned here for market students, not to brag.


For those just now tuning-in, additionally in this thread there are numerous examples of options trading, shorting, and playing commodities such as gold, uranium, and oil. Those were even more profitable and consistent than the calls in the "sample portfolio" but the small $ amount in the example trades limited what I can do. Point being, good trading ideas/examples can be found in many posts not related to the "sample portfolio" and also in many posts made by other participants.

Again, it's not bragging - I say it to underscore what a very valuable resource this thread is to anyone interested in learning about investing. Also with the benefit of hindsight, I suggest that my past predictions in re: the current market/economic malaise have proven surprisingly prophetic. Among them were predictions that we'd be seeing plenty of "for sale" threads citing job losses and the economy as reasons for the sales, and a quick search of the classifieds reveals that's gotten underway. Truth is, anyone can do it and you can too.

These past economic predictions are also something from which a great deal can be learned, since they are what the trading is based on. Even if you're reading this and are not an investor now, you might be the next time the markets boom or bust (we've enjoyed both cycles already in the course of this thread) and you can save yourself a lot of money, even profit massively, if you've got the benefit of some hindsight and honest commentary such as you can find herein when you finally are in the markets.


What else? I'd like to add value now, rather than simply touting the value of what's already been posted herein.

I imagine there've been plenty of gas price threads lately, and while I have not read them I feel quite sure most of the conspiracy or market theories posted in them are bunk. History repeats, as I like to say, so I expect these current threads will be much like previous ones.

That undoubtably being the case, here's an older gas price thread in which myself and others contributed many lengthy and detailed posts that explain not only the real factors behind rising oil prices and why direct comparison so prices in other countries is utterly meaningless, but also what can be done to hedge you and your family against the rising costs and even profit from them. http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202437

Here's another with similar info : http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=199620

As always, historical perspective is extremely valuable even if that history is relatively recent.


There's one more thread I very highly recommend reading. Unfortunately it is in the Lobby so I cannot currently view it ot link to it, but it is titled something along the lines of "What would you do with $1000?" and I believe it was started by Bassic83 who contributes to this thread.

I can't say stridently enough what a must-read it is for anyone investing at any level. Some of it will be tough to fully "get" at first for some readers, but the gist is clear. It tracks the saga of a certain (apparent) penny stock scam another TBer was touting (innocently I believe), and many scams and shysters related to it, essentially exposing and detailing how these things work and play out in the markets.

If you think this thread is worth reading at times, I think you'll find that one an educational laugh riot and well worth the $20 to access it if you're not already a supporting member. Far more expensive books and courses have far less valuable info in them, I assure you. Thing is, while it's about a penny stock the same lessons can be wholly applied to supposed "blue chip retirement stocks" such as Bear Stearns, Enron, ABK, etc. http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202437

Some people are just plain suckers, and it behooves you to know if you're the gullible type and if you are then never participate in the equities markets under any conditions including mutal and index funds. A more simple rule, never hold or buy any stock that trades at its 1-year lows. If anything, short those. That simple rule would have turned all Enron holders into winners, all Bear Stears holders into winners, etc. I'd stated that same rule in this thread a couple years ago, and looking back since 2007 you can see how profitable that advice would have been.


My current outlook? It's going to get much, much worse economically in the US economically and in the markets (especailly with an Obama win - not a political statement, just a commentary on his stated policies and apparent economic ignorance/naivitee .. the other two aren't much better, but Obama seems to be the front-runner and economically he seems to be the most dangerous and dunce). Years ago in another thread - I think Joshua might recall - I predicted this next US election would see a 1-term Democrat president then Republicans for years if not decades afterwards. I see it as a dying empire scenario, in the macro world view, replete with the protectionism, xenophobia, and exacerbating policies that go with such a scenario. I stick by that.

Nothing against the US - I have a lot of friends, family, and money there, plus Canada is quite tied to the US economically. It's just how history tends to go for economic & military empires that get into this situation financially and geopolitically (and every empire so far in history has gone this way), and I've no reason to think this time will be any different. I'll be happier if I'm wrong, and admittedly it seems an extreme prediction but it's how I see it given there seems to be no political or public will to change course. So, for now anyway, continued grief in housing and finance.

I had predicted earlier in this thread that cities/municipalities in the US would start going bankrupt. That's finally begun in Vallejo California. Many, many more to come. I also see GM going bust or needing to be bailed out at much lower share prices withing the next year or two. I've predicted that here for years and it's going that way as is plainly evident by their balance sheet and stock chart.

So too FNM and FRE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). I'm currently short all those, as well as oil - that move is way overdone, I believe. Buying gold/silver on significant dips still looks good to me, and maybe accumulating some uranium stocks (read the thread for background on that idea and for specific companies to consider). I'm also short grossly overvalued stocks such as GOOGle. I have select longs for balance - I've got about 45 positions currently, and some change often, so I won't detail them all.

Those wishing to hedge against the US economy and dollar without investing in equities (domestic or foreign) check out Everbank's offerings.

In a nutshell, I think we'll soon see overall deflation - in the markets, in housing prices, in prices of all assets and commodities. Yes, I said *de*flation. I still wouldn't put much faith in the US Dollar though - its trend remains firmly down.

Collections agencies might be good to invest in. One I had mentioned earlier in the thread, I just this week book a 200% gain on the call options I'd bought. I'll buy back into it after the big market slide that's just starting today.


Some amusing topical articles :

http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=199620

Invalid Link Removed

A great "must" daily read : http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


I likely won't be around TB much, if at all, so anyone interested in continued access to my market thoughts and trade ideas can email me via the TB email link to request being put on my mailing list. I sometimes send 3 notes in a week, sometimes 1 in a month. Depends what I'm doing in the markets and whether I change any positions I'd previously announced taking - kinda like in this thread but with the focus being on trade ideas (long, shorts, options, you name it) rather than much general economic commentary.

 

[joelb79]

Thanks for coming back, if ever so brief SMASH. I do enjoy your e-mails and wish you the best of luck out there!

 

[Barkless Dog]

Hola amigos ! I'm alive and very well and hope you've all been well too and weathering the economic challenges if not profiting from the situation.

I've rec'd some queries about this thread, so a quick update while I'm back on TB.

Fist, the "sample portfolio". I'd sell out ER.to and CVT.to for gains of 85% and 65% respectively. I'm not so much thining they've run their course as I realized that there's a key concept I haven't yet illustrated - taking your profits out, or at least taking out your original investment.

I do have other good sub-$1 purchase ideas, but I'm not in the mood to track this in general and as I said the concept of withdrawing funds is important so presume this money would be taken out of the markets. Money is *not* safe in the stock markets at any time, least of all now. Period.

So we'd started originally with $1000 CAD (the original poster being Canadian, coupled with my assertions a few years ago at the start of this thread that the US dollar would tank badly which it has proving that putting money in markets outside the US was the prudent approach) and with these trades we now show :

ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

BAY.v                  100               1.61            .41             (74)
HPS-A.to               100              11.90          12.11               2
RSG.v                  400                .17            .11             (35)
WGP.v                 1000                .385           .46              20

Cash $812      

[b]Net Gain to date per the trades in this thread is 157%
 in roughly 27 months.[/b]

If measured in real terms for people in the States, 
due to the falling US dollar, it'd be approx +220%    

* I may no longer update this going forward.

Not now that almost all of the original cash has been recouped, with the gains have been posted consistently in defiance of highly volatile markets, and with very few trades all done outside of market hours I don't think I've much else to make an example of. Of those that remain in the list, I'd only currently be happy to purchase or hold HPS-a and WGP.

Tallying up, there have been 22 trades (less than one per month), only 5 of them losers. That's a 77% win rate, and if anyone can point me to someone who can post more reliable gains more often, at any price for their service, I'd greatly appreciate it because it'd save me a lot of time and effort. I say so both sincerely and as an effort to underscore how much can be learned here for market students, not to brag.


For those just now tuning-in, additionally in this thread there are numerous examples of options trading, shorting, and playing commodities such as gold, uranium, and oil. Those were even more profitable and consistent than the calls in the "sample portfolio" but the small $ amount in the example trades limited what I can do. Point being, good trading ideas/examples can be found in many posts not related to the "sample portfolio" and also in many posts made by other participants.

Again, it's not bragging - I say it to underscore what a very valuable resource this thread is to anyone interested in learning about investing. Also with the benefit of hindsight, I suggest that my past predictions in re: the current market/economic malaise have proven surprisingly prophetic. Among them were predictions that we'd be seeing plenty of "for sale" threads citing job losses and the economy as reasons for the sales, and a quick search of the classifieds reveals that's gotten underway. Truth is, anyone can do it and you can too.

These past economic predictions are also something from which a great deal can be learned, since they are what the trading is based on. Even if you're reading this and are not an investor now, you might be the next time the markets boom or bust (we've enjoyed both cycles already in the course of this thread) and you can save yourself a lot of money, even profit massively, if you've got the benefit of some hindsight and honest commentary such as you can find herein when you finally are in the markets.


What else? I'd like to add value now, rather than simply touting the value of what's already been posted herein.

I imagine there've been plenty of gas price threads lately, and while I have not read them I feel quite sure most of the conspiracy or market theories posted in them are bunk. History repeats, as I like to say, so I expect these current threads will be much like previous ones.

That undoubtably being the case, here's an older gas price thread in which myself and others contributed many lengthy and detailed posts that explain not only the real factors behind rising oil prices and why direct comparison so prices in other countries is utterly meaningless, but also what can be done to hedge you and your family against the rising costs and even profit from them. http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202437

Here's another with similar info : http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=199620

As always, historical perspective is extremely valuable even if that history is relatively recent.


There's one more thread I very highly recommend reading. Unfortunately it is in the Lobby so I cannot currently view it ot link to it, but it is titled something along the lines of "What would you do with $1000?" and I believe it was started by Bassic83 who contributes to this thread.

I can't say stridently enough what a must-read it is for anyone investing at any level. Some of it will be tough to fully "get" at first for some readers, but the gist is clear. It tracks the saga of a certain (apparent) penny stock scam another TBer was touting (innocently I believe), and many scams and shysters related to it, essentially exposing and detailing how these things work and play out in the markets.

If you think this thread is worth reading at times, I think you'll find that one an educational laugh riot and well worth the $20 to access it if you're not already a supporting member. Far more expensive books and courses have far less valuable info in them, I assure you. Thing is, while it's about a penny stock the same lessons can be wholly applied to supposed "blue chip retirement stocks" such as Bear Stearns, Enron, ABK, etc. http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202437

Some people are just plain suckers, and it behooves you to know if you're the gullible type and if you are then never participate in the equities markets under any conditions including mutal and index funds. A more simple rule, never hold or buy any stock that trades at its 1-year lows. If anything, short those. That simple rule would have turned all Enron holders into winners, all Bear Stears holders into winners, etc. I'd stated that same rule in this thread a couple years ago, and looking back since 2007 you can see how profitable that advice would have been.


My current outlook? It's going to get much, much worse economically in the US economically and in the markets (especailly with an Obama win - not a political statement, just a commentary on his stated policies and apparent economic ignorance/naivitee .. the other two aren't much better, but Obama seems to be the front-runner and economically he seems to be the most dangerous and dunce). Years ago in another thread - I think Joshua might recall - I predicted this next US election would see a 1-term Democrat president then Republicans for years if not decades afterwards. I see it as a dying empire scenario, in the macro world view, replete with the protectionism, xenophobia, and exacerbating policies that go with such a scenario. I stick by that.

Nothing against the US - I have a lot of friends, family, and money there, plus Canada is quite tied to the US economically. It's just how history tends to go for economic & military empires that get into this situation financially and geopolitically (and every empire so far in history has gone this way), and I've no reason to think this time will be any different. I'll be happier if I'm wrong, and admittedly it seems an extreme prediction but it's how I see it given there seems to be no political or public will to change course. So, for now anyway, continued grief in housing and finance.

I had predicted earlier in this thread that cities/municipalities in the US would start going bankrupt. That's finally begun in Vallejo California. Many, many more to come. I also see GM going bust or needing to be bailed out at much lower share prices withing the next year or two. I've predicted that here for years and it's going that way as is plainly evident by their balance sheet and stock chart.

So too FNM and FRE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). I'm currently short all those, as well as oil - that move is way overdone, I believe. Buying gold/silver on significant dips still looks good to me, and maybe accumulating some uranium stocks (read the thread for background on that idea and for specific companies to consider). I'm also short grossly overvalued stocks such as GOOGle. I have select longs for balance - I've got about 45 positions currently, and some change often, so I won't detail them all.

Those wishing to hedge against the US economy and dollar without investing in equities (domestic or foreign) check out Everbank's offerings.

In a nutshell, I think we'll soon see overall deflation - in the markets, in housing prices, in prices of all assets and commodities. Yes, I said *de*flation. I still wouldn't put much faith in the US Dollar though - its trend remains firmly down.

Collections agencies might be good to invest in. One I had mentioned earlier in the thread, I just this week book a 200% gain on the call options I'd bought. I'll buy back into it after the big market slide that's just starting today.


Some amusing topical articles :

http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=199620

Invalid Link Removed

A great "must" daily read : http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


I likely won't be around TB much, if at all, so anyone interested in continued access to my market thoughts and trade ideas can email me via the TB email link to request being put on my mailing list. I sometimes send 3 notes in a week, sometimes 1 in a month. Depends what I'm doing in the markets and whether I change any positions I'd previously announced taking - kinda like in this thread but with the focus being on trade ideas (long, shorts, options, you name it) rather than much general economic commentary.

Best investment paragraph I have read in a long time.