Man, I just don't get it. All we hear is that people are hurting these days. Many can't make ends meet.
Despite what we like to tell ourselves, there’s people - and then there’s
people. Precisely
who is hurting, and what the source of the pain is depends a lot on the economic bracket you’re looking at.
For the upper bracket it’s the
expectation (hasn’t happened yet but we’ll see) of income tax increases and higher excise taxes on luxury goods.
For the mid bracket it’s major purchases such as increased home and new car prices - and even more nosebleed inducing college tuition increases.
For the lower bracket it’s higher prices for basic needs like: food, clothing, and rent.
Where I am (since the real COL and poverty level varies by locale) if you’re making around $75K a year, you’re doing ok. Around $50K you’re coping well enough, but learning to scale back. Around $35K, things are getting pretty tight. And the further you go below that, things get progressively grimmer.
As far as sales goes, there’s sales reported by manufacturers and distributors - which is basically inventory purchased by lower tier distributors and retailers - and retail or “sell through” sales to actual end customers.
A lot of the sales numbers being reported are B2B inventory stock purchases. That number is popular with analysts because it’s easier to accurately track and report. Actual retail sales are a lot tougher to track because they usually don’t include adjustments for: customer returns, warranty replacements, merchandise lost through theft or scrapped due to damage, or any other factors that would reduce actual real sales figures.
Current concerns about price increases and supply shortages are also pressuring buyers to purchase sooner rather than later.
I’ve seen a lot more ads lately that are advising people to “buy now before new pricing goes into effect” and “get yours now while supplies last.” And couple that with price increases anyone can see, and ongoing reporting on supply chain issues, and you get a low grade short-term panic buying trend.
The problem with economics is you always need to be looking at the bigger picture. Pull any statistic or figure out of context and examine it in isolation and you can interpret it any way you want. But once you examine it in the context of it being only part of a much bigger picture, what it actually shows you is happening can be very different than what looking at it all by itself might make you feel or think. Because it’s all part of a complex system. One where there are no simple answers.
Is four of a kind a good hand? All depends on what the other players at the table are holding. And who is bluffing better.
Most of life works like that.
