They are using the media to posture so the bankers are under more pressure to come up with favorable terms for debt restructure. The company is making money, the debt is the problem.
Bingo!
Bankruptcy seldom benefits lenders unless there’s significant readily liquefiable assets (real estate, patents, modern manufacturing machinery, investments, etc.) to break up and sell off. And I don’t think Gibson has that enough of that kind of asset base to make selling it off piecemeal an attractive option. Especially with Gibson’s $1 billion annual revenue stream. That’d be like killing the goose that laid golden eggs for its down.
There’s a saying in business that goes: When you can’t afford to pay your lenders back the $10 thousand you owe it’s your problem. When you can’t afford to pay back $10 million it’s also the lender’s problem.
So the rule if thumb is: If you borrow, best borrow big.
If you’re going to go into debt, make sure it’s for enough money that the lender’s financial statements will take a hit and require a footnote if you default. Because the worse thing that will happen in that scenario is you’ll end up with a couple of their people sitting on your board of directors.
Gibson has significant cash flow - assuming their sales are “sell through” numbers and not just consignment sales for retailer’s inventory. But the situation is definitely salvagable (short term) as long as the people they owe can come to an agreement on restructuring an unworkable debt load. Sometimes making 80¢ is better than making $1 if you can get it more easily.
That would require the lenders to look a bit beyond their current and next quarterly P&Ls. And that’s something most American companies have become loathe to do. So even though it makes sense to restructure Gibson's debt there’s no telling if the financial people would have the grit to do so and see it through. But it’s still doable. And it makes good business sense to do it.
But that’s no guarantee it’ll happen. Lenders are under the gun to produce fast & easy money and show immediate profits just like every other US business these days. And bad debt write-offs for corporate tax purposes softens the blow somewhat. So it’s still hard to predict what will happen there.
Right now it’s a waiting game while the vultures circle and the bean counters sharpen their pencils and shoo them off before going on to the next round of negotiations.
Time will tell how it finally ends.