Looks like we might catch a break and not be on the dirty side...
Hurricane Ike Advisory 42
Issued: Thursday, September 11th 2008 5:43pm CDT
Current Status
At 4PM CDT, Hurricane Ike is near 26.0N/89.4W, or about 395 miles east-southeast of Galveston, TX. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph. Earlier this afternoon, Ike took a jog to the northwest for a few hours, but the present movement is to the west-northwest at 10-12 mph.
Changes From our Previous Forecast
We have adjusted Ike's point of landfall to the eastern side of Galveston Bay on this advisory. New data also indicate that Ike's hurricane force and 58 mph winds have decreased in coverage in the past 6-12 hours, so we've made significant reductions in these wind radii on this advisory.
Our Forecast
Between noon and about 2PM CDT, Ike moved to the northwest at 12-14 mph. This put Ike's center 30 miles to the right of the previous forecat track. Because of this northwest movement, Ike is now tracking to the right or north of most model guidance. Since it is likely that Ike will jog to the northwest another time or two prior to landfall, we have adjusted our forecast to take Ike inland over the Bolivar Peninsula and across the eastern side of Galveston Bay late tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Once inland, Ike should track to the north at an increasing forward speed during the day on Saturday, passing east of Tyler late in the afternoon and into southwest Arkansas early Sunday morning.
Although Ike's winds have not increased today, the stronger winds in Ike's eastern semicircle are beginning to wrap around into the northwest side of the hurricane this afternoon, a sign that Ike is getting better organized. In addition, recent measurements by recon aircraft indicate that Ike's area of hurricane force winds has decreased significantly since last night. The contracting of Ikes wind field is what would be expected for Ike to intensify, and we think that Ike will strengthen over the next 24-36 hours prior to landfall, probably to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115-120 mph as it approaches the coast tomorrow night. Once inland, Ike should weaken very quickly as it accelerates northward through east Texas, probably to a tropical storm by late Saturday afternoon as it passes east of Tyler and to a remnant low across Arkansas on Sunday.
As a Category 3 hurricane striking on the east side of Galveston Bay, Ike's surge would be concentrated east of Galveston Bay to south of Port Arthur and into Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The surge in this area could be up to 15-20 feet from the Bolivar Peninsula to Sabine Pass and 12-16 feet into Cameron Parish. Farther east, the surge could reach 8-10 feet into the Vermilion Bay area and 5-7 feet as far east as Grand Isle, LA. Should Ike make landfall just west of Galveston Bay, then the surge into Galveston Bay could reach 15-20 feet.
Other Possibilities
We think that if Ike deviates from the current forecast that there is a good chance Ike will move inland to the right of our forecast track, closer to Port Arthur, TX. In addition, confidence in Ike's intensity forecast is low. Ike's winds may not reach Category 3 strength prior to landfall, particularly if its forward speed increases a little tonight.
Our next full advisory will be issued by 11PM CDT.
I hope that forecast holds true.