Because I’m disabled, and forced to spend a really depressing amount of time sitting in my recliner, I’ve been looking at the schedules for each of the likely playoff teams, and some interesting things jumped out at me.
I actually started by trying to figure out if the Bears have a serious shot at the last Wild Card spot, and it still looks like a crapshoot. Philly, Detroit, and both Green Bay games looks like 3-4 losses. Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and San Francisco could be 4 wins, but more likely 2-3. It’s entirely possible their week 17 game in San Francisco will be a tiebreaker.
Obviously nobody even knows who’s going to be playing QB for the Niners for the rest of the season, or who else may end up playing (or out) by the end of the season. Even without all their stars, though, the defense is still ridiculous with Robert Saleh back in charge. They could beat 2 or 3 teams they have no business beating, and sneak into the playoffs.
In theory, Green Bay could finish behind both Chicago and San Francisco, and if you only looked at the standings you might even believe that. I’m already happy to take Caleb Williams over Jordan Love in the last 2 minutes, but for now I’ll still take Love for the first 58. The Packers have a better team, not across the board, but in most areas. Short of some major catastrophe, their floor is the second Wild Card slot. Particularly with Detroit prone to occasionally self destructing, their ceiling is still winning the division.
Jumping up to the top of the NFC, Philly still has Detroit at home, plus the Chargers and Bills on the road. Plus they still have to go to Dallas. Given how up and down they’ve been so far, that seems like at least 1 loss. I’d be surprised if they get the top seed, and they could end up as low as third.
Then there’s the unlucky Bucs. Unlucky because of injuries to key players, and unlucky because they have to play every other Super Bowl contender in the conference. The good news is they’ve got the tiebreaker against the Seahawks. The bad news is they’ve lost the tiebreakers against Philly and Detroit. The worse news is they’re unlikely to reach the tiebreaker. With no divisional competition, they’re a lock for the playoffs, but almost certainly as the fourth seed. Fortunately for them, it’s hard for a good team to beat another good team twice in a year. Unfortunately for them, it’s even harder to win 2 road playoff games. Of all the division winners, they’re already the most likely to get bounced in the first round.
That leaves the NFC West. I have to admit to not watching either the Rams or Seahawks this year. However, I can’t help but notice that the Rams are in a perfect position to take the top seed. They play Tampa and Detroit, but both in LA, and then Seattle twice. Other than that the only team on their schedule who can beat them is themselves.
Unfortunately for the Rams, the Seahawks appear to have an easier schedule, barring a resurgence by the Niners at season’s end, Seattle only has the 2 Rams games and the Colts at home. If they win the division, seeding gets more interesting. They’ve already lost to the Bucs, but since Tampa is unlikely to force a tiebreaker, that’s really just trivia at this point.
I guess my one big question at this point is how good are the Seahawks? It’s hard not to believe the Rams are for real, given McVay’s track record of assembling contenders in just a year or 2, but is Sam Darnold really the guy in Seattle? I’m genuinely asking those of you who have been paying attention. If he is, it sure seems like the NFC Championship Game is likely to be played on the West Coast.
